30 Cumberland St

Valley Falls, RI 02864

$575,000C

9 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,189 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,511/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$653
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,367
• Net cashflow: $1,476/mo
• Annual: $17,708/yr
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.00%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $161,000

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $575k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $492/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $575k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in RI, #4,293 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #9 of 39 in RI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.3% in Valley Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,511/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($118k/yr) (locally 771% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.