39412 Mercer Rd

Lacoochee, FL 33523

$74,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,234/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $465/mo
• Annual: $5,586/yr
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.96%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $20,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($512 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#904 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lacoochee Elementary School (math 47% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 286 students, 93% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 48% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.