2185 W Say Dr

Citrus Springs, FL 34434

$288,950F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 239 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,039/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,515
• Tax + insurance: −$482
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-386/mo
• Annual: $-4,631/yr
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.72%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $80,906

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-386 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (29.4% below list).
• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Springs Elementary School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 817 students, 71% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $289k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.