918 Spring Hill Rd

Poplarville, MS 39470

$179,700D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2010 · Manufactured · Pending · 199 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,286/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$942
• Tax + insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-56/mo
• Annual: $-668/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $50,316

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-668/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#27 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Poplarville Separate School District (rural): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #52 of 130 in MS (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poplarville Lower Elementary School (476 students, 99% FRL); Middle School of Poplarville (math 43% / reading 38%, grade F, #60 of 179 statewide, top 37%, 448 students, 99% FRL); Poplarville Jr Sr High School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #36 of 197 statewide, top 19%, 556 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 63% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.8% in Poplarville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.