222 S Main St

Owenton, KY 40359

$178,500D

7 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,864 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,074/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$936
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-254/mo
• Annual: $-3,045/yr
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.09%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $49,980

Investor read

• This is a 7-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $178k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (39.8% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#355 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Owen County (rural): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #120 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Owen County Elementary/Primary School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #378 of 676 statewide, top 57%, 690 students, 62% FRL); Maurice Bowling Middle School (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 217 statewide, top 78%, 484 students, 62% FRL); Owen County High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 558 students, 53% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Owen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Owen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $178k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 1.4% in Owenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.