Cedar Canyon 2071 - BOYL Plan

Missoula, MT 59808

$97,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,492/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$513
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $502/mo
• Annual: $6,027/yr
• Cap rate: 12.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.98%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $27,412

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $677 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#17 in MT, #2,351 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Missoula H S (urban): math 31% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #53 of 116 in MT (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 773 units permitted in Missoula County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Missoula County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 1.7% in Missoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.