5327 N Red Hills Pl

Meridian, ID 83646

$699,999D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,168 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,164/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax + insurance: −$495
• HOA: −$62
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,084
• Net cashflow: $-149/mo
• Annual: $-1,783/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $196,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $700k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $674k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $516k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($658k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $516k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in ID, #1,176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• Joint School District No. 2 (suburban): math 53% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #11 of 92 in ID (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Prospect Elementary School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B, #68 of 357 statewide, top 19%, 532 students, 15% FRL); Heritage Middle School (math 63% / reading 79%, grade A, #1 of 109 statewide, top 0%, 1,062 students, 11% FRL); Rocky Mountain High School (math 47% / reading 76%, grade B-, #18 of 169 statewide, top 10%, 1,917 students, 8% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 907 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Meridian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,164/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 1017% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.