1463 N State Highway 123

Hartford, AL 36344

$128,250F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Pending · 172 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $989/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$673
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $-105/mo
• Annual: $-1,258/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $35,910

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (22.9% below list).
• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $886 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#169 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Geneva County (rural): math 22% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #39 of 129 in AL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Geneva County Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #121 of 627 statewide, top 21%, 437 students, 69% FRL); Geneva County Middle School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #73 of 257 statewide, top 29%, 179 students, 72% FRL); Geneva County High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 241 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Geneva County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Geneva County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.