442 Dollie Dr

Villa Ridge, MO 63089

$72,000B-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Active · 208 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $875/mo
• Annual: $10,495/yr
• Cap rate: 20.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.06%
• DSCR: 3.32
• 1% rule: 2.37%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $875 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#619 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Meramec Valley R-III (town): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #148 of 324 in MO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 614 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (100 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.