4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,113 sqft ·
Built 2016
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 10 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,129/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,045
Tax + insurance
−$292
HOA
−$27
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$657
Net cashflow
$108/mo
Annual
$1,296/yr
Cap rate
6.63%
Cash-on-cash
1.19%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$109,172
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (19.8% below list).
Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $313k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities D-.
Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Halcyon Elementary School (math 8% / reading 31%, grade F, #477 of 627 statewide, top 76%, 615 students, 52% FRL); Carr Middle School (math 6% / reading 37%, grade F, #185 of 257 statewide, top 73%, 761 students, 58% FRL); Park Crossing High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 906 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 70% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 409 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $337k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $3,129/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1742% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BW85VSAMSWD876
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29