4326 Calle Real #140

Eastern Goleta Valley, CA 93110

$275,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,629/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$885
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-250/mo
• Annual: $-3,003/yr
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.75%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (4.4% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Hope Elementary (269 students, 43% FRL); La Colina Junior High (900 students, 42% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 10→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.2% in Eastern Goleta Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.