4336 Almond Rd

Cloverdale, IN 46120

$39,499B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Pending · 207 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $915/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax + insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $422/mo
• Annual: $5,068/yr
• Cap rate: 19.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.82%
• DSCR: 3.04
• 1% rule: 2.32%
• Cash to close: $11,060

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($915 rent vs $39k).
• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $273 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $481 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#156 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cloverdale Community Schools (rural): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #167 of 301 in IN (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Owen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Owen County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 3.5% in Cloverdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.