3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,333 sqft ·
Built 1865
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,600/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$787
Tax + insurance
−$202
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$336
Net cashflow
$276/mo
Annual
$3,309/yr
Cap rate
8.50%
Cash-on-cash
7.88%
DSCR
1.35
1% rule
1.07%
Cash to close
$42,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#254 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Citronelle High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 719 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1865 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1865 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BX7STS1H3STW1M
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29