1130 Left Fork of Little Paint

Prestonsburg, KY 41216

$150,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 284 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,053/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-174/mo
• Annual: $-2,087/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (29.8% below list).
• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $550 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#327 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Floyd County (rural): math 13% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #157 of 165 in KY (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Prestonsburg Elementary School (math 4% / reading 18%, grade F, #645 of 676 statewide, top 96%, 649 students, 80% FRL); James D. Adams Middle School (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #168 of 217 statewide, top 78%, 312 students, 72% FRL); Prestonsburg High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #179 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 492 students, 60% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Floyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Floyd County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $150k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Prestonsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.