2407 Burch St

Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37208

$379,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,384 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Active · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,083/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $200/mo
• Annual: $2,399/yr
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.26%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $106,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($346k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $308k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robert Churchwell Elementary (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #926 of 952 statewide, top 100%, 289 students, 0% FRL); Haynes Middle (math 0% / reading 3%, grade F, #332 of 333 statewide, top 100%, 291 students, 0% FRL); Pearl-Cohn High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #294 of 332 statewide, top 91%, 604 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $380k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.9% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,083/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 1432% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.