3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,579 sqft ·
Built 2008
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,675/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,154
Tax + insurance
−$449
HOA
−$29
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$352
Net cashflow
$-309/mo
Annual
$-3,705/yr
Cap rate
4.61%
Cash-on-cash
-6.01%
DSCR
0.73
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$61,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (24.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (23.9% below list).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $165k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: James L Masters (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 802 students, 66% FRL); Karen Wagner H S (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 2,366 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 57% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
9 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BYCM2KAVX9BCC0
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29