100 Hemlock Dr #160

Ocean Acres, NJ 08005

$48,500D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 418 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,301/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$254
• Tax + insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $1,483/mo
• Annual: $17,794/yr
• Cap rate: 42.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 131.03%
• DSCR: 6.83
• 1% rule: 4.74%
• Cash to close: $13,580

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 418 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $335 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#425 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 58% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 43.0% vs local median 3.2% in Ocean Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 418 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.