3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,652 sqft ·
Built 1922
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,592/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$944
Tax + insurance
−$470
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$334
Net cashflow
$-156/mo
Annual
$-1,872/yr
Cap rate
5.25%
Cash-on-cash
-3.71%
DSCR
0.83
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$50,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (15.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (11.5% below list).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $152k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#215 in NY, #3,348 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
Cheektowaga-Sloan Union Free School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #555 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29