194 Pine Needle St

Onalaska, TX 77360

$224,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,553 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 124 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,455/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax + insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-413/mo
• Annual: $-4,959/yr
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.91%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $62,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (35.0% below list).
• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $186 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.9% in Onalaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?