1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
550 sqft ·
Built 1972
· Condo
· Pending
· 33 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,795/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$566
Tax + insurance
−$265
HOA
−$548
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$377
Net cashflow
$40/mo
Annual
$476/yr
Cap rate
7.47%
Cash-on-cash
4.22%
DSCR
1.19
1% rule
1.66%
Cash to close
$30,212
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $108k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($476/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $105k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $746 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #988 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Safety Harbor Elementary School (math 63% / reading 66%, grade B, #525 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 657 students, 49% FRL); Countryside High School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,741 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 31% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.6%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $64k; list at $108k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.9% in Clearwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BYZWDD9KFYJCMC
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29