Redman 19 Southwind Village Plan

Vista Center, NJ 08527

$225,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 992 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,687/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $568/mo
• Annual: $6,818/yr
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.82%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#507 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Switlik Elementary School (math 24% / reading 41%, grade F, #656 of 1,303 statewide, top 51%, 809 students, 29% FRL); Carl W. Goetz Middle School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade D-, #167 of 431 statewide, top 41%, 989 students, 22% FRL); Jackson Memorial High School (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #166 of 399 statewide, top 42%, 1,499 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.3% in Vista Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.