3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,058 sqft ·
Built 1978
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,159/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,180
Tax + insurance
−$143
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$243
Net cashflow
$-408/mo
Annual
$-4,892/yr
Cap rate
4.12%
Cash-on-cash
-7.77%
DSCR
0.65
1% rule
0.51%
Cash to close
$63,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-408 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (32.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (48.5% below list).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $116k (48.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#236 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
West Side School District (rural): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #118 of 238 in AR (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: West Side Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #254 of 454 statewide, top 59%, 288 students, 100% FRL); West Side High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #92 of 292 statewide, top 37%, 218 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 47% district-wide (53 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $56k; list at $225k implies a 305% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 1.9% in Higden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 37 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29