23333 Four Chimneys Ln

Middleburg, VA 20117

$2,850,000D

4 bd · 6.5 ba · 3,224 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,946
• Tax + insurance: −$2,483
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $-14,269/mo
• Annual: $-171,225/yr
• Cap rate: 0.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.46%
• DSCR: 0.05
• 1% rule: 0.14%
• Cash to close: $798,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/6.5-bath single-family listed at $2.85M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14k ($-171k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (88.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (86.0% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.68M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $329k (88.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $305k of equity ($20k loan paydown + $285k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#174 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.15M; list at $2.85M implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$490k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.3% vs local median 0.4% in Middleburg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 88% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.