19792 Creekside Dr

Emerald Bay, TX 75762

$173,600C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,363 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$910
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$4
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $372/mo
• Annual: $4,464/yr
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.18%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $48,608

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#293 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Bryan C Jack El (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 685 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 66% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Tyler ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.9% in Emerald Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.