1019 Orchard St

Newport, KY 41071

$245,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,908 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,520/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $561/mo
• Annual: $6,730/yr
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.81%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#58 in KY, #1,070 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Newport Independent (suburban): math 14% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #160 of 165 in KY (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newport Intermediate School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #607 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 387 students, 89% FRL); Newport High School (math 16% / reading 28%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 579 students, 84% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 239 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 247 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (77 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $245k implies a 512% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.9% in Newport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,520/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1136% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.