1945 W Van Buren St

Phoenix, AZ 85009

$999,000B-

None bd · None ba · 810 sqft · Built 1952 · MultiFamily · Active · 486 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $24,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,239
• Tax + insurance: −$950
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,142
• Net cashflow: $13,156/mo
• Annual: $157,875/yr
• Cap rate: 22.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.44%
• DSCR: 3.51
• 1% rule: 2.45%
• Cash to close: $279,720

Investor read

• This is a 21 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $999k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($158k/yr) — positive. Per door: $626/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $999k).
• It's been on market 486 days — a 12% lower offer ($879k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $879k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.0%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $536k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $280k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $24,488/mo this rent would consume 565% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 2121% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 486 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.