23 Secluded Ranch Bend Plan

Willis, TX 77318

$110,900C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 910 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 889 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,535/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$582
• Tax + insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $446/mo
• Annual: $5,354/yr
• Cap rate: 11.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.24%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $31,052

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $111k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $111k).
• It's been on market 889 days — a 12% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $767 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 889 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.