20893 Haulover Cv #8

Land O' Lakes, FL 33558

$122,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 456 sqft · Built 1982 · Condo · Active · 280 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,573/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$487
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-712/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.07%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $34,412

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $123k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-712/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (8.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $106k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Land O' Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.