4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,417 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,777/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$813
Tax + insurance
−$366
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$373
Net cashflow
$224/mo
Annual
$2,693/yr
Cap rate
8.03%
Cash-on-cash
6.20%
DSCR
1.28
1% rule
1.15%
Cash to close
$43,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
Amarillo ISD (urban): math 44% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #336 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Lamar El (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 314 students, 90% FRL); Fannin Middle (math 36% / reading 30%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 657 students, 79% FRL); Caprock H S (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,090 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 58% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-C1BHB09GC2ZZK8
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29