12 E 78th St #1

Harvey Cedars, NJ 08008

$245,000C-

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 173 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,153/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$531
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $175/mo
• Annual: $2,101/yr
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.20%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#504 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Southern Regional School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #251 of 472 in NJ (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.