2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
864 sqft ·
Built 1945
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 36 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,265/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$472
Tax + insurance
−$150
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$266
Net cashflow
$377/mo
Annual
$4,527/yr
Cap rate
11.32%
Cash-on-cash
17.97%
DSCR
1.80
1% rule
1.41%
Cash to close
$25,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#216 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.5% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: Kitchen cabinets
— Worn and dated appearance.
Moderate: Bathroom fixtures
— Dated and stained appearance.
Moderate: Flooring
— Worn and dated appearance.
Moderate: Paint
— Chipped and peeling in some areas.
Moderate: Exterior siding
— Weathered and in need of repainting.
Moderate: Landscaping
— Basic and not well-maintained.
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