4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,400 sqft ·
Built 1890
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,374/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$981
Tax + insurance
−$215
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$919
Net cashflow
$2,259/mo
Annual
$27,114/yr
Cap rate
20.79%
Cash-on-cash
51.78%
DSCR
3.30
1% rule
2.34%
Cash to close
$52,360
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $187k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $187k).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#536 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
Batavia City School District (town): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #477 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 5.5% in Batavia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,374/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-C1Z2N70YBKJH36
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29