1025 Long Creek Dr

Southold, NY 11971

$1,399,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,690 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,006/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,337
• Tax + insurance: −$1,505
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,311
• Net cashflow: $-147/mo
• Annual: $-1,759/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $391,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.37M (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.10M (21.3% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.38M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.10M (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $1.40M implies a 1220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.