8305 Lewisburg Rd

Lewisburg, KY 42256

$125,900D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Built 1940 · Other · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,031/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $502/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $35,252

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $126k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($502/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $918 of equity ($870 loan paydown + $48 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#295 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Logan County (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #32 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewisburg Elementary School (math 41% / reading 43%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 484 students, 64% FRL); Logan County High School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade F, #30 of 254 statewide, top 12%, 953 students, 47% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $126k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.