4 bd · 3.5 ba ·
1,889 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,326/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,189
Tax + insurance
−$277
HOA
−$142
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$698
Net cashflow
$20/mo
Annual
$240/yr
Cap rate
6.35%
Cash-on-cash
0.21%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$116,869
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $417k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($240/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (20.3% below list).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($411k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $333k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#132 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).
Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.6% in La Plata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-C2GSYXEMA1GCSS
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29