360 Musket Ln

Jefferson, CO 80432

$439,900D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,141/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$2
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $-104/mo
• Annual: $-1,248/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $123,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $422k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $314k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Park County School District No. Re-2 (rural): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 176 in CO (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edith Teter Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #604 of 966 statewide, top 63%, 211 students, 39% FRL); South Park Middle School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #106 of 270 statewide, top 42%, 98 students, 36% FRL); South Park High School (math 10% / reading 70%, grade F, #167 of 381 statewide, top 46%, 124 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 144 units permitted in Park County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Park County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $440k implies a 639% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Jefferson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.