391 Madeira Cir

Tierra Verde, FL 33715

$399,900D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · Built 1996 · Condo · Active · 210 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,266/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$1,191
• HOA: −$645
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$896
• Net cashflow: $-563/mo
• Annual: $-6,756/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-563 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (24.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $400k).
• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $300k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-619 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#646 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulfport Montessori Elementary School (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,744 of 2,144 statewide, top 82%, 435 students, 86% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 915 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 48% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 282 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $89k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $259k; list at $400k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?