20 Constance Dr

Vallejo, CA 94590

$199,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Pending · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,478/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $582/mo
• Annual: $6,989/yr
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.54%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#304 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Vallejo City Unified (urban): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,124 of 1,400 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 176 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.1% in Vallejo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,478/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 2972% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The independent image shows a new roof with a transferable lifetime warranty, but the listing photos do not show the roof.
• Major: exterior — The independent image shows a concrete sidewalk and a grassy area, but the listing photos do not show the exterior condition.
• Major: flooring — The listing photos show laminate flooring, but the independent image does not show the flooring condition.
• Major: interior walls — The listing photos show fresh paint, but the independent image does not show the interior walls.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — The listing photos show a newer HVAC system with central A/C, but the independent image does not show the HVAC system.
• Major: landscaping — The independent image shows a concrete sidewalk and a grassy area, but the listing photos do not show the landscaping condition.