4124 Swilley Rd

Georgetown, MS 39191

$72,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,947 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Pending · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,231/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $444/mo
• Annual: $5,330/yr
• Cap rate: 13.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.44%
• DSCR: 2.18
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#322 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Copiah County School District (rural): math 27% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #76 of 130 in MS (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Copiah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Copiah County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.