405 S 4th St

Effingham, IL 62401

$89,900C

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,479 sqft · Built 1898 · SingleFamily · Active · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,163/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $90/mo
• Annual: $1,075/yr
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#140 in IL, #2,564 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Effingham CUSD 40 (town): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #387 of 620 in IL (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Grade School (math 18% / reading 27%, grade F, #934 of 2,056 statewide, top 46%, 498 students, 0% FRL); Effingham Junior High School (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #405 of 665 statewide, top 61%, 522 students, 0% FRL); Effingham High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #218 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 734 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 41% district-wide (41 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Effingham County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.7% in Effingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.