2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
958 sqft ·
Built 1993
· Condo
· Active
· 196 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,096/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$711
Tax + insurance
−$226
HOA
−$175
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$230
Net cashflow
$-246/mo
Annual
$-2,948/yr
Cap rate
4.12%
Cash-on-cash
-7.77%
DSCR
0.65
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$37,940
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $136k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $100k (26.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (19.1% below list).
It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $100k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $937 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 503 students, 65% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1613 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.9% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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