502 Oak St

Grand Forks, ND 58201

$205,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · Built 1898 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,781/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $28/mo
• Annual: $334/yr
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($334/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (13.1% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $178k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#8 in ND, #2,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+.
• Grand Forks 1 (urban): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #27 of 53 in ND (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phoenix Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #137 of 236 statewide, top 63%, 260 students, 45% FRL); Valley Middle School (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #31 of 35 statewide, top 88%, 513 students, 56% FRL); Central High School (math 29% / reading 56%, grade F, #48 of 144 statewide, top 33%, 1,093 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 29% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 133 units permitted in Grand Forks County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grand Forks County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.2% in Grand Forks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.