4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,000 sqft ·
Built 2004
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 51 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,247/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,442
Tax + insurance
−$541
HOA
−$7
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$472
Net cashflow
$-215/mo
Annual
$-2,586/yr
Cap rate
5.35%
Cash-on-cash
-3.36%
DSCR
0.85
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$77,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (13.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (18.3% below list).
It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $225k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#198 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: John A Sippel El (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 743 students, 35% FRL); Dobie J H (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 1,347 students, 31% FRL); Byron P Steele Ii H S (math 68% / reading 66%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,716 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Schertz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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