2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
600 sqft ·
Built 1983
· Condo
· Active
· 44 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,428/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$6
Tax + insurance
−$2
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$300
Net cashflow
$1,120/mo
Annual
$13,443/yr
Cap rate
1228.37%
Cash-on-cash
4364.58%
DSCR
195.20
1% rule
129.79%
Cash to close
$308
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $1k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1k).
It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($1k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $33 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Marble Falls El (math 41% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 764 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $308 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 1228.4% vs local median 3.8% in Marble Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-C4VJFE98NYG8XY
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29