9541 4th St N

Lake Elmo, MN 55042

$393,500D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,906 sqft · Built 2021 · Townhouse · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,064
• Tax + insurance: −$447
• HOA: −$242
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-383/mo
• Annual: $-4,591/yr
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.17%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $110,180

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $394k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (23.8% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $300k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#271 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake Elmo Elementary (math 54% / reading 48%, grade C-, #406 of 857 statewide, top 48%, 653 students, 28% FRL); Oak-Land Middle School (math 50% / reading 52%, grade C, #69 of 258 statewide, top 27%, 933 students, 28% FRL); Stillwater Area High School (math 57% / reading 66%, grade B-, #39 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,647 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.6% in Lake Elmo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.