4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,147 sqft ·
Built 1999
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 80 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$48,793/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$18,328
Tax + insurance
−$5,825
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$10,247
Net cashflow
$14,393/mo
Annual
$172,720/yr
Cap rate
11.23%
Cash-on-cash
17.65%
DSCR
1.79
1% rule
1.40%
Cash to close
$978,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $3.50M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($173k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($49k rent vs $3.50M).
It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($3.29M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $3.29M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $374k of equity ($24k loan paydown + $350k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#874 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Bridgehampton Union Free School District (rural): math 50% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #511 of 755 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $2.35M; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $979k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$601k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $48,793/mo this rent would consume 337% of the median local household income ($174k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-C5KAFM3HXGDN7X
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29