Wilson Plan

Rosenberg, TX 77471

$76,995B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 401 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,855/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$404
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $933/mo
• Annual: $11,198/yr
• Cap rate: 20.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.94%
• DSCR: 3.31
• 1% rule: 2.41%
• Cash to close: $21,559

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $77k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $933 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).
• It's been on market 401 days — a 12% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bowie El (math 43% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 466 students, 83% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 727 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 401 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.