535 Patrick Farms Dr

Pearl, MS 39208

$309,300D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,819 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,537/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,583
• Tax + insurance: −$503
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-990/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $84,547

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $309k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-990/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (18.0% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#19 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pearl Public School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #32 of 130 in MS (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northside Elementary School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #134 of 375 statewide, top 36%, 586 students, 100% FRL); Pearl Junior High School (math 46% / reading 40%, grade D-, #47 of 179 statewide, top 26%, 1,001 students, 100% FRL); Pearl High School (math 46% / reading 49%, grade D, #28 of 197 statewide, top 14%, 1,262 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,537/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1235% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.