5211 Wilcox Dr

Erwinville, LA 70767

$100,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,195 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 193 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,392/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $427/mo
• Annual: $5,121/yr
• Cap rate: 12.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.14%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#361 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: housing C-, employment D+, schools F.
• West Baton Rouge Parish (suburban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #35 of 98 in LA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 144 units permitted in West Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• West Baton Rouge County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.