1411 Bridge St

Ashtabula, OH 44004

$309,000C

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,494 sqft · Built 2018 · Townhouse · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,537/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax + insurance: −$581
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$743
• Net cashflow: $532/mo
• Annual: $6,389/yr
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.31%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $86,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $309k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $309k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $300k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#420 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ashtabula Area City (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #588 of 656 in OH (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $268k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,537/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.